Welcome to The Strictest Scrutiny!

Welcome to the fantasy football blog with just the right mix of in-depth statistical analysis and subjective considerations. You have to have both – numbers without looking at subjective considerations could easily miss predicting whether a sudden point spike is a fluke due to bad coverage or a predictor of future success because a WR finally learned how to set a hard plant and run a route successfully. Looking at subjective considerations without statistical data is equally unhelpful since intangibles don’t score fantasy football points.

To that end, the analysis here can help you in your league. It should be one source, and not your only source, for fantasy football information. Anyone who says "I'm the only source you need" doesn't actually care whether you do well, they only want your pageviews.

A couple of things about me: I am an attorney, so I am required to consider and allow for all possible situations and adapt accordingly. I err on the side of completeness – I’d much rather consider 10 possibilities and discard them all than to ignore a possibility that later materializes (like Foles’ incredible point surge last year). That's where the legal reference in the title of the blog comes from.

I’m also a poker player. I tend to be risk-neutral, to the greatest extent I can be. If there’s a 50/50 shot at either getting 20 points in a week or zero points, or a 100% shot at 9 points, I’d generally take the 50/50 shot (since expected payoff is 10). In these situations, just like any risk-reward play, you should contextualize it based on the team you’re hitting on that given week. For example, if you’re against a team with no one on bye who has consistently outscored your team by 20 points, then take the risk-reward play. Easy enough.

Just to round out the mix, I have an economics background, so digging through statistics, looking at data displays, and thinking about issues like relative positional scarcity are things I actually find fun. So, I'll do the work for you on that front.

Thank you for reading this. I hope this is as useful to you as it is fun for me to write. Best of luck in your leagues!

You can follow me on Twitter @StrictScrutiny0, or come say hi to me on reddit under the username StrictScrutiny.