Ceilings and Floors, and simplifying your lineup questions

Every week, you're confronted with difficult lineup choices. That's part of fantasy football. Some people go to sites like reddit's fantasy football subreddit (/r/fantasyfootball); some use various experts' rankings; some use the hosting site's projections; etc. Some people are well-informed enough and watch enough games that they primarily use their own gut. All of these are great (except hosting site projections...) and worth using, but sometimes the decision isn't easy at the end of the day. If you think in terms of ceilings and floors, you can usually make the decision a little easier on yourself.

When you're thinking about how a player will perform, you usually aren't thinking "this player will probably catch eight passes for 123 yards, I bet!" That doesn't really make sense unless you have the sports almanac from Back to the Future II; predictions about the future don't work like that. You're thinking "they might have a good game because of X!" It's a vague idea, which is sometimes hard to use when comparing players.

Here's how to use this effectively: figure out the player's ceiling and floor.

The ceiling is the best-case scenario for the player (and factor in about the odds of that scenario happening). Conversely, the floor is the worst-case scenario for the player (and factor in about the odds of that scenario happening).

Seems simple enough - and it really is that simple. Apply it for yourself and see what happens. We'll use Keenan Allen and Cordarrelle Patterson for our example.

Keenan Allen is the WR1 in SD and will be at home against the Seahawks. Last week he pulled down 5 passes for 37 yards on 9 targets while being aggressively shadowed defended by the Cardinals' Patrick Peterson (Thanks to reddit's /u/mudville9, who noted that Peterson oddly stayed to one side of the field on 58/62 snaps in Week 1 - the Cardinals must not have perceived Allen as a WR1 threat over Malcom Floyd).. Thankfully, Richard Sherman,who is probably a little better than Peterson, doesn't play shadow coverage; he stays to one side of the field. In Week 1, Sherman's coverage meant that Rodgers never threw to Boykin all day (and the Packers put Boykin, their WR3, on Sherman's side of the field constantly). It's possible that the Chargers try to keep Allen on the non-Sherman side of the field, but it's a bit more likely that they use him all over the field as per normal. Remember though, the Seahawks defense gives Sherman lots of room to work and compress the non-Sherman side of the field, bracketing receivers and generally favoring coverage on that side. As a result, things are not incredibly easy for any WR against the Seahawks (though Cobb and Nelson had a reasonably decent day lining up on that side of the field in Week 1).

Given that, it's probably safe to set his floor somewhere around what happened in Week 1 to Allen (since he likely won't be blanketed all game, but probably some of it) - blanket coverage, but pulled in a number of shorter passes. His ceiling is probably a little above what Nelson did last week (9/83) with a possible score in there. I tend to think the ceiling is slightly more likely than the floor, but that's very open to differing opinions.

Cordarrelle Patterson only grabbed 3 passes for 26 yards on 5 targets (in comparison, Jennings had 7 targets), but also rushed for 102 yards and a score on 3 carries against the Rams last week. This week he faces the Patriots. The Patriots have Revis instead of Talib now, but didn't use him in shadow coverage in Week 1 against Mike Wallace/the Dolphins, indicating they probably won't use him in that capacity too often. Wallace deserves shadow coverage over Hartline more than Patterson deserves shadow coverage over Jennings, so it's probable - as probable as any Belichick prediction ever is - that Revis will be in the same capacity against the Vikings. The Patriots have a horrendous run defense and AD is AD, so lots of yards will be picked up in the ground game. Patterson's carries are super-unpredictable, because either AD's rushes cause the Patriots to pack the box allowing Patterson to run outside the tackles or AD's rushes are so effective that Patterson doesn't even get the minimal 3 carries he got last week. Regardless, 100 yards rushing isn't likely to happen again, so set that aside. The Patriots needing to pack the box means Patterson will be left open (anytime he's not dealing with man coverage from Revis) across the middle, meaning lots of potential opportunities there.

Given that, Patterson's floor is probably a little higher than Week 1 in terms of receiving totals. It's reasonable that the passing game might not be needed quite as much, but when it is used it'll be effective. I tend to think the Patriots will keep the game close at a minimum, so passing will remain part of the equation all game, raising the floor and making the floor less probable. It's not unreasonable to set the ceiling high, including a score and maybe a couple middling carries to round out the totals.

I have Patterson edging out Allen this week as a result, in large part because I think Allen's floor is more likely than Patterson's. That said, remember that essentially what we're doing is predicting a range of possibilities, and there's lots of overlap in that range - I have these two players very close in my rankings.

The more detail you can think through, the better, but even with limited information the same principle applies: figure out the realistic best case scenario, the realistic worst case scenario, about the relative probabilities of each, and use that to make your start/sit decisions.

Soon, I'm going to start posting a weekly Strictest Cornerback Watch to help decide how concerned you should really be about players like Sherman, Peterson, Haden, and other star corners.

The Question of Ellington

With the reports of Ellington's foot injury today (and the resulting migraines suffered by Ellington/Lacy owners), all anyone's been talking about is what to do. Is Dwyer worth a pickup? What's the most recent news? HELP ME WHAT DO I DO I'VE LOST THE SEASON ALREADY

Okay, calm down. There are two related questions to answer. 1. What's the best way to proceed from here, and 2. Is Dwyer good enough to justify a pickup?

HELP ME WHAT DO I DO?
Let's start with the bad news. The Cardinals play the very last game of Week 1, kicking off at 10:20PM Eastern time. You can't wait until game time to get the most updated information and make a choice then. You're going to have to make some decisions in advance.
If you're looking at waiver/free agent pickups, you can't wait until the last second to pick up a player, especially if it 's someone that another owner could have eyes on (for example, you probably aren't the only one in your league looking at Ellington's backup, Dwyer...though whether that's a good decision or not is up for debate, and we'll analyze it below). There's not much benefit to waiting for information anyway unless you are seriously considering starting Ellington if he's healthy enough to start.

Let's say Ellington somehow ends up playing. Can I safely start him?
Safely? No. If I have a decent flex option, I'd absolutely start him over Ellington this week unless the news is suddenly incredibly good (which is unlikely at this point). Even if he plays, his downs will probably be limited which massively lowers his ceiling. I'd rather start any flex option over that spinning roulette wheel.


Is Ellington's backup, Dwyer, worth a pickup?
If Ellington is out, Dwyer will receive the bulk of carries. While I've said before that relying on preseason data is fairly unreliable, it's about the best data we have for this situation, so let's take a look:

Texans v. Cardinals (0-32). Dwyer: 4 carries, 7 yards (1.8 ypc, longest carry 4 yards), 0 receptions.
Cardinals v. Vikings (28-30). Dwyer: 5 carries, 10 yards (2.0 ypc, longest 4 yards, 1 TD), 0 receptions.
Bengals v. Cardinals (19-13). Dwyer: 5 carries, 7 yards (1.4 ypc, longest 7 yards), 0 receptions.
(Dwyer didn't play the last preseason game)

Dwyer's best performance was against the Vikings; let's take a closer look. His TD play was a goal line carry of 1 yard early in the 1st, and a few carries early in the 2nd. His carry in the Cardinals side of the field (on the Arizona 5) went for a loss of a yard, while his best two carries were back to back in the midfield.

This is a really small sample size - 14 carries over three games. However, in those 14 carries, he's amassed a gigantic...24 yards, averaging 1.7 yards per carry. He is certainly no Ellington.

Of course, Dwyer is likely to do better when he has a full game in front of him. That said, the immediate panic should not be "I have to go pick up Dwyer." I would rather start a semimarginal flex option than Dwyer, who is likely to share at least a few carries with Stepfan Taylor anyway.

Of course, if you have no other options and the waiver wire doesn't have any good options - sure, go ahead and pick him up. Then you can at least wait until gametime to see who to start.

IN SUM: 
1. If you have a flex option on your bench, put him in your starting lineup instead of Ellington and forget about this mess until next week.
2. If you need a replacement from the waiver wire to fill that gap, just pick up the player now.
3. Pick up Dwyer as a last resort only.